Foreign forces in Afghanistan are between a rock and a hard place–we can’t stay but we can’t leave. Now one may argue it’s been like that all along. Afghanistan has been plagued by war for decades; surely civil war will follow when ISAF withdraws. But now there are some concrete logistical barriers to leaving.
Earlier this year Pakistan refused to allow the United States to transport supplies through their territory. An apology and a bit of haggling allowed those routes to reopen, but it will still be dangerous and costly to move equipment and supplies out of Afghanistan.
And now insider shootings are frustrating American attempts to train Afghans to take over security. That’s the key step in the plan. Karzai and Obama assure us the Afghan forces will be able to keep militants in check after NATO and allies are gone. But American forces have now suspended training Afghans because of the increasing incidence of uniformed Afghans shooting foreign soldiers. By various accounts, 10-25% of these killings may be accounted for by Taliban infiltration and coercion. If this was actually the Taliban’s plan, it’s brilliant. If foreign forces can’t train their replacements they can’t leave. But they will have to, because of declining morale and domestic pressures, so they will leave without replacements.
Tyrell Mayfield (http://www.thekabulcable.com/?p=1513) pointed out that the number of insider killings is in fact small compared to the incidence of suicide among American troops. In fact, in July more American soldiers killed themselves than died in combat. Now I’m not going to pretend to understand what causes a soldier to take his own life, having never been in combat nor had suicidal thoughts, but I think it must be related to declining morale. So the Mujahadeen are winning the moral war. By this I do not mean that a majority of Afghans believe that the militants are more righteous than American or Afghan troops; rather I mean that the militants believe in what they are doing more than the American forces believe in what they are doing. And because Jihad is a movement and not an organization, drone strikes on prominent leaders and innocent villagers will only draw more militants to the fray.
The war in Afghanistan is becoming decreasingly popular in the United States, as it is in most of the nations who have sent troops. In the USA the main two presidential candidates avoid the issue. Mitt Romney did not even mention the Afghan war–the longest running war in US history–during his convention speech. Barack Obama can only say that we are leaving by 2014. But for many Americans that’s not soon enough. And most observers are forced to conclude that Afghanistan will not be ready by that time.
So we can’t leave, but we can’t stay.
Ty Mayfield says:
Great post and thanks for the link! I’d like to offer a few observations for your consideration.
Afghanistan is often referred to as the longest American war, but Vietnam occupied more of our time when one considers the advisory effort and then the transition to combat operations. Your point is well taken though; Afghanistan has become an endurance event that will last for years to come.
I don’t think that suicide is necessarily an indicator of the morale of the US military as a whole. It is certainly an increasing phenomenon and one that must be addressed. I believe that a large part of the problem exists here in the US and is a function of the general public’s inability/unwillingness to understand the war and its effects on servicemen. You’d be amazed at the response I get from people when I tell them I’m heading to Afghanistan for a year. It ranges from “why?” to “I thought we were pulling out?”
It remains to be seen to what level the Taliban have actually been coordinating/facilitating/encouraging the Green on Blue attacks. The Taliban have proven to be very adaptable when it comes to the tactical fight and are even capable of innovation at the strategic level. They’ve drawn lessons from across the globe as well as directly from the US led effort. The relationship between American advisors and their Afghan counterparts is a clear center of gravity in the current campaign strategy. The fact that the US has suspended the training of ANSF pending a review and re-vetting of some 27K ANSF members is not an encouraging sign. It’s either a knee jerk reaction or a response to a much larger problem. Either way it’s a serious and troubling development.
Thanks again for the link to The Kabul Cable!
2 September 2012, 22:57Cheers
Ty
donald says:
Thanks for commenting here, Ty! Your perspective from the field is valuable. Perhaps I read more into it than I should from my vantage. I think what you describe is part of what I mean when I use the word “morale”. It must be disheartening to come home to compatriots who don’t understand what you’re doing or why! I realize that the suicides represent a small fraction of the force, and there are many soldiers who are committed to their cause. But when the incidence of suicides is on par with the number of combat deaths, we have to ask why if we intend the mission to succeed. When a suicide bomber kills one or several foreign soldiers, the Taliban consider it a victory. When the soldiers kill themselves the Taliban cannot claim responsibility, but it ultimately serves their purpose.
9 September 2012, 08:33